March 2026 Newsletter

Iran Recent History

In 1953, the CIA was involved in providing funds to stir up unrest that ultimately placed the Shah in power. The motivation at the time was rooted in the Cold War and maintaining influence in the region, particularly to counter the Russians.

This arrangement worked for a while. The Shah kept the country mostly friendly to the U.S., although he was adept at playing the Russians off against the U.S. to secure more funding. Meanwhile, the U.S. continued funding mullahs and other radical religious groups in Iran, largely to keep pressure on the Shah’s rule and maintain leverage.

In 1977, the Carter administration stopped funding the mullahs. This contributed to the religious revolution that ensued, ultimately leading to the fall of the Shah’s regime and his expulsion from the country. The Ayatollah’s reign began.

In November 1979, radical Iranian students stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran and took 52 Americans hostage (initially 66, with some released early). The Iranians held the hostages for 444 days. The Carter administration froze all Iranian assets the week after the embassy takeover. In April 1980, during the hostage crisis, the Carter administration attempted a rescue operation called “Operation Eagle Claw.” The mission failed when helicopters broke down due to a severe sandstorm at a desert staging location. Eight service members were killed when a transport plane collided with a helicopter after the abort order was given. Of the eight helicopters, only five remained operational after the storm; six were the minimum required for the rescue, so the mission was aborted.

Ever since these events, the U.S. and Iran have been engaged in a covert war. Iran’s radical religious leaders have pursued their passion for spreading radical Islam, which includes the ideology of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”

Over the years, the Ayatollahs have spent billions building increasingly sophisticated offensive capabilities, which now include long-range missiles and drones.

In 2002, it was discovered that Iran was enriching uranium—a clear indication of ambitions to build an atomic bomb. Despite years of negotiations, international observers, and other diplomatic efforts, Iran continued enriching uranium.

In 2016 (as part of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal framework), the Obama administration released $1.7 billion of Iran’s frozen assets in a negotiated settlement tied to ending their nuclear ambitions (this included returning $400 million in principal from a pre-1979 arms deal trust fund plus $1.3 billion in interest). In hindsight, it appears this money was used to accelerate their offensive weapons programs rather than halt nuclear pursuits.

That brings us to where we are today: a moving target in an ongoing conflict, largely because the U.S. will not allow the Ayatollahs to acquire a nuclear bomb. Stay tuned.

Investing?

If anything, times like these serve as a reminder of why it’s impossible to consistently time the stock market (i.e., getting in and out at the right moments). Market timing adds one more layer of unnecessary risk for long-term investors. There are simply too many random variables and uncontrollable events. As much as we wish for predictability in our daily lives, ultimately, we live in a lottery of uncertainties.

Thanks, Andy McClung, CFP®

Sources: History.State.gov; Crimson.com; Barnes; Google searches

2026 Market Results – 03/09/26